When "Small Non-Farm" and "Big Non-Farm" Tell Different Stories Throughout history, ADP and official employment data have frequently shown massive divergences , often displaying a hot-cold pattern. Taking a rational perspective on these datasets, let's examine the June 2023 case where ADP and official employment figures painted dramatically different pictures. The gap between ADP employment data ("Small Non-Farm") and official non-farm payrolls ("Big Non-Farm") has drawn widespread attention. Consider this: June through September marks peak US travel season , with public holidays overlapping student summer breaks, logically driving significant demand for travel and hospitality services. While ADP data showed explosive growth in leisure and hospitality employment , official non-farm payrolls delivered disappointing results in this sector — contradicting mainstream economic logic . After spending an hour collecting relevant information...
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